February 2025 Outlook Study of Business Production
Note: The survey answers were collected from February 10 to February 17th.
Production activity in the region continued to expand, according to firms that respond to February February Outlook business production survey. Although the survey indicators for current overall activity, new orders and deliveries were reduced, readings remain raised. The employment index fell, but it remained positive. Both price indices increased and remain above their long -term averages. Firms continue to expect growth over the next six months, though expectations were less widespread.
Most current indicators fall but remain raised
The diffusion index for current general activity dropped from 44.3 to 18.1 in February, but remains above its long -term average of disrespect (see graph). Almost 41 percent of firms reported an increase in overall activity this month (down from 51 percent last month), while 23 percent reported to decrease (by 7 percent); 35 percent reported no changes (from 41 percent last month). Indexes for new orders and deliveries also fell, but remained raised compared to their long -term averages: The new orders index fell 21 points to 21.9, and the deliveries index fell 15 points to 26.3.
The employment index remained positive, but dropped 7 points to 5.3, offsetting its growth last month. Nearly 85 percent of firms reported no changes to employment levels this month, while the part of firms’ reports (10 percent) exceeded the reporting of the shares decreased (5 percent). The average work week index fell from 20.5 to 2.9.
Firms continue to report overall price increase
Both price indices increased in their highest readings to over two years. Paid price index increased 9 points to 40.5, its highest reading since October 2022. Over 45 percent of firms reported increasing prices, while 5 percent reported to decrease; Half of the firms reported no changes. Current index prices have increased 3 points to 32.9, its highest reading since November 2022. Almost 34 percent of firms reported rising prices received for their goods, 1 percent reported to decrease, and 66 percent did not report any changes.
Firms’ expectations for their prices remain unchanged
In the special questions of this month, firms were asked to predict changes in the prices of their products and for us consumers during the next four quarters. Regarding their prices over the next year, the average firms prediction was for an expected 3.0 percent increase, unchanged from when this question was last in November. Firms reported an average increase of 3.0 percent in their prices over the past year, just like the last quarter. Firms expect the costs of compensation of their employees (salaries plus employee -based benefits) to increase 3.9 percent in the next four quarters, from 3.4 percent in November. The average forecast of firms for the rate of inflation for US consumers over the next year was also unchanged at 3.0 percent.
Firms continue to wait for future growth
The diffusion index for future general activity fell from 46.3 to 27.8 in February (see graph). The new future orders and deliveries Indices both dropped 24 points, 33.1 and 36.5, respectively. The next paid price index decreased from 67.3 to 58.6, and future prices accepted the index decreased from 53.6 to 46.1. Firms continue to expect overall employment growth, but the next employment index fell from 40.4 to 23.7. The next capital expenditure index fell 25 points to 14.0, its lowest reading since August. Most firms (72 percent) expect sustainable capital costs, 21 percent expect growth, and 6 percent expect to decrease.
Briefing
Answers in February Outlook study of business production Suggest regional production activity continued to expand this month. Indicators for current activity, new orders and deliveries remained raised. In the balance sheet, firms showed an increase in employment, and price indices remained above their long -term averages. Extensive poll indicators for future activity suggest expectations for growth over the next six months.
SPECIAL QUESTIONS (February 2025)
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Please list the annual percentage change regarding the following: |
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stream |
Previous |
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For your firm: |
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| Forecasting for next year (2025q1-2026Q1) | ||
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1. The prices your firm will receive (for its goods and services sold). |
3.0 |
3.0 |
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2. Compensation Your firm will pay for employees (for wages and benefits). |
3.9 |
3.4 |
| Last year price change (2024Q1-2025Q1) | ||
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3. The prices your firm received (for its goods and services sold) over the past year. |
3.0 |
3.0 |
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For us consumers: |
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4. Excess US consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. |
3.0 |
3.0 |
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5. US Customers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2025-2034). |
3.0 |
3.0 |
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Numbers represent the media of individual forecasts (percentage of changes). For question 5, firms reported an average change of 10-year-old. |
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